A 'Roads Only' Strategy Will Not Solve Congestion Problems

A 'Roads Only' Strategy Will Not Solve Congestion Problems

Pennsylvanians currently enjoy an incredible degree of mobility and it is also clear that mobility demands will increase over the next 25 years because of changing demographics, lifestyles, and ways of doing business.

"Much of the demand in Pennsylvania will be for individual mobility, and congestion and travel delay will remain challenges to transportation policy makers. This demand won't be accommodated by road systems alone," explains Peter Everett, associate professor of marketing in Penn State's Smeal College of Business Administration.

Everett contributed research and chapters to Pennsylvania's Statewide Long Range Transportation Plan (PennPlan). PennPlan identifies ten broad goals for Pennsylvania's transportation system of the 21st century.

"A continually accelerating demand for transportation resources, such as roads, cannot always be met. Therefore, transportation resources may experience rationing to some degree by 2025," says Everett. "For example, use of tolls might be extended, with higher tolls on premium, limited-access, high-speed roads and lower tolls for off-peak travel. Or there may be quotas on automobile registrations, in which an older car must be officially taken out of circulation before a new car can be put into service."

PennPlan, Everett explains, represents the state's attempt to shape its response to the changes that will accompany the passing of the next quarter century. Everett's contributions to the project include the chapter, "Visions of the Future."

"PennPlan is the blue print for all modes of transportation-highways, transit, passenger rail, freight rail, air and water facilities, and bicycle and pedestrian paths-and how these modes will interact and interconnect to form a system," says Everett.

Everett's chapter takes a three-pronged approach for predicting Pennsylvania's transportation future:

1) Transportation Now-the PennPlan team's description of the current transportation scene in Pennsylvania, to serve as a backdrop for speculation about the future.

2) Debatable Futures-potential approaches to transportation demand during the next 25 years, based on interviews with transportation visionaries across the country.

3) Consensus Scenarios-themes that were expressed by the visionaries, the PennPlan team, and participants in the initial phase of PennPlan's public involvement effort.

Everett notes that there will be no single solution to the transportation challenges of the next 25 years. Instead, solutions will reside in a multitude of travel options for residents, visitors, and businesses.

"A major finding of the initial public involvement program was the paucity of travel options. The public seems to feel that there are enough roads in Pennsylvania and that more travel options-such as mass transit electronic commerce, and bicycle and pedestrian facilities--should be offered," says Everett.

New road construction will be relatively minimal by 2025, but there was consensus from all groups in the public involvement process for high-speed rail connections between major cities in Pennsylvania. High-speed rail probably will be a reality in the Commonwealth's transportation system of 2025.

"Safety will continue to be a dominant transportation theme for the next 25 years. The public will demand it," says Everett. "For example, in 2025 the public will have an even lower tolerance for those who drink and drive. The punishment for driving under the influence will be even more severe and immediate. Indeed, technological innovations will even prevent an impaired driver from initiating a trip."

Another characteristic of the transportation system of 205 will be reliability. Improvements in the transportation infrastructure, online information about traffic bottlenecks and alternative routes, and an array of transportation options, Everett says, will enable consumers to predict the time and cost of their trips.

The Pennsylvania Department of Transportation solicited extensive public involvement in the development of PennPlan, much like processes used in the private sector before initiation of new products or services. Approximately 2000 people representing diverse groups were interviewed in person or on the telephone during 30-to-45-minute conversations.

"Comments were collected before PennPlan was written so the public had significant influence on its development," Everett says. "This contrasts with traditional transportation planning. Typically, plans are created and then citizens respond to them at public meetings. That type of format does not allow public input before plans are developed, and often only a few people-those with vested interests-attend and participate at the meetings."